04
Sep
2020

Bitcoin price of $ 100,000 in 2021: how realistic is the price forecast?

The last two days in particular were more than a small setback for the Bitcoin price and the overall market. After positive weeks and three to four-digit growth for many DeFi tokens, the market has been bathed in red for the past two days. Bitcoin lost almost 10% from the beginning of the month until yesterday Thursday.

Nonetheless, there are still bullish forecasts and a two-day downtrend is far from being a bear market. In this article we would like to ask ourselves how realistic the Bitcoin price forecast of $ 100,000 in 2021 is.

Bitcoin price of 100,000 USD and more?

The reason for this article is a tweet by the well-known analyst Dave the Wave on Twitter. Dave the Wave made it to „fame“ primarily through his prediction last year. Because in 2019, Dave described the Bitcoin price decline from $ 11,600 to $ 6,400 early on.

Now the analyst reacted to the Bitcoin price forecast of the Winklevoss twins, which is now a few weeks old. As a reminder: The twins and founders of the Gemini Exchange recently said in an interview that Bitcoin was undervalued. This is what he said until he reached a Bitcoin rate of $ 500,000.

The two Harvard graduates cite the changes in US monetary policy as reasons. As a consequence, there will be an increase in inflation and, in the opinion of the twins, this in turn will boost the Bitcoin price. In other words: BTC underpins its position as a safe haven asset.

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Six-digit Bitcoin price realistic?

Let us now come back to Dave the Wave and its analysis. He reacted to the forecast of the Winklevoss twins and called their target rate of USD 500,000 reasonable.

As can be seen from the tweet above, Dave the Wave refers to the logarithmic growth curve of the Bitcoin price. According to this, BTC could reach a price of $ 500,000 in 2029. If we follow the curve, 2023 should see a price of 100,000 USD.

In contrast, for example, is PlanB and its Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model, which predicts a Bitcoin rate of 100,000 dollars for the coming year. At this point, it must be emphasized that the significance of both models is difficult to assess.

There is no doubt that both models are based on carefully considered parameters and match the results of the past with a high degree of accuracy. In view of the difficult to predict events at the macroeconomic level and the constantly changing environmental factors (Covid-19, inflation targets of the FED, potential bankruptcy wave), there are countless disruptive factors that can quickly shake such a model.

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